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Peter Buchanan's avatar

Yes, Charlotte, you are right on target! I think vertical AI is the layer that's the biggest winner in the AI stack. Sadly, it's largely ignored by the trade press. It's where most of the success stories actually live. BTW, customers are getting used to your thesis in a hurry - much faster than I would have expected a year ago.

AltG: The Intelligence Buyout's avatar

Vertical AI Is Non-Rival. That's the Bug, Not the Feature.

Rike and Buchanan are right that vertical AI is where ROI is showing up. They've missed why it won't stay there.

Economic goods come in two flavors. Rival goods can only be consumed by one party — a factory, a customer relationship, a distribution network. Non-rival goods can be replicated infinitely at near-zero marginal cost — software, models, code.

Vertical AI is non-rival. That is the entire problem.

Harvey's workflow builder, Abridge's SOAP-note pipeline, Sierra's agent OS — every one of them runs on foundation models any competitor can rent by the hour, trained on data any competitor can buy or scrape, sold into industries with no structural barriers to a second entrant. The "moat" of institutional memory takes 18 months to build and a sharper competitor 12 to replicate. Margins compress. Pricing collapses to cost-plus. The arbitrage closes.

The only durable AI returns will accrue to rival, excludable assets — the customer, the distribution, the brand, the physical footprint. You cannot replicate a hospital. You cannot fork a law firm. You cannot rent a forty-year distribution network by the GPU-hour.

The IBO inverts the trade. Don't sell intelligence into the workflow. Buy the workflow, then install the intelligence.

Vertical AI is the fourth wave. The fifth is operators with capital who skip the licensing model entirely.

Sequoia called it services as the new software. We call it ownership.

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